Midterm Situational Briefing -- Late October
A reversion to anti-incumbency
This is the next in a series of briefings on the 2022 midterm elections, scheduled to be held on the 8th of November. The last briefing, from early October, can be found by clicking the button below. Each briefing includes the latest forecast for the House of Representatives and Senate, as well as updates on specific races. Given how close we are to the election now, my projections below will rely on the qualitative aspects of my modeling as survey results and quantitative inputs reach the limits of their relevance.
House of Representatives
Based on my model, these are my latest projections regarding the House of Representatives election, if it were to be held today:
I continue to expect the House to flip to a Republican majority. This is to be expected, as anti-incumbency benefits the opposition party in the midterms.
However, since the last update, the Republicans have gained quite considerably at the polls, recouping most of the reversals they had suffered in polling averages since late July. This has led the model to flip six additional seats from Democratic to Republican since the last update earlier this month.
Many pundits have noted the re-emergence of economic issues as a leading concern of voters in several polls. Additionally, Republican campaign efforts are ramping up over the last few weeks. Compared to the traditional Democratic strategy of starting campaigns early and sustaining them over many months, the Republican strategy has been to focus on fundraising until the final stretch, and then deploy those resources to blitz the airwaves and run an extensive ground game going into the election. This strategy seems to be factoring into this late surge towards the Republicans.
The generic ballot poll input to the model gives the Republicans a 1.5% lead in the popular vote. Handicapping other data (namely President Biden’s approval rating) to adjust for selective turnout, the model currently projects a 2.7% Republican lead in the popular vote.
Considering that the Democrats won 222 seats in 2020 to the Republicans’ 213, the model predicts that 18 seats currently held by Democrats would flip in November. This is 6 more seats than what was predicted in early October.
While most rating changes from the last update have moved seats toward the Republicans, some seats have trended in the opposite direction. A notable example would be Alaska’s at-large district, where the incumbent Democrat, Mary Peltola, has received endorsements from Republican Lisa Murkowski, as well as the staff of Alaska’s previous Republican representative Don Young.
Meanwhile, there are some traditionally Democratic seats where exceptionally-high candidate quality from the Republican side is making races competitive. The most notable example is Rhode Island’s 2nd congressional district, where Republican Allan Fung is combining charisma with maverick stances on LGBTQ+ issues to great effect. Polling indicates an incredibly tight race in what should be a relatively safe Democratic seat.
Senate
Based on my model, these are my latest projections regarding the US Senate election, if it were to be held today;
Unlike the methodology that projects House results above, the Senate projections are based on a purely qualitative model, that takes into account polling data, as well as impressions of candidate quality and perceptions of the candidate among the electorate.
I am currently predicting that the Republicans will control a majority of seats in the US Senate by a slim single-seat margin, a break from my prior projections indicating a perfectly divided Senate.
Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto’s (Democratic-Nevada) re-election race has been moved from Tilt Democratic to Tilt Republican. This has been done for the following reasons:
Democrats appear to have garnered far less momentum in Nevada when compared to the other swing races in the US Senate. As opposed to Georgia and Arizona, which have seen a consistent trend towards the Democrats, Nevada’s political breakdown has remained stagnant, with the possibility that the state hews to national trends and drifts Republican over time, given the Silver State’s current demographic projections. In practice, this means that there really is no ‘safety-net’ demographic for Democrats that seems willing to buck national trends for specific reasons (i.e. college-educated white voters willing to prioritize social issues over economic ones).
Republican candidate Adam Laxalt has done a good job of keeping voter attention off his stances on abortion, which traditionally have served as a liability for conservatives in a libertarian state like Nevada.
The Democratic Party in the state has been in disarray. Last year, a slate of democratic socialists took control of the state party, prompting many liberal organizations to break formal ties with the state Democrats. Former Democratic senator from Nevada Harry Reid tried to maintain a semblance of order as he worked to bridge the divide between the state party satraps and several important Democratic allies. However, with his passing last year, the liberal organizing coalition continued fragmenting further, as distrust abounds.
Finally, strong state-wide polling numbers for Laxalt and national polling results for Republicans indicate that Laxalt, as a Republican candidate, has the wind in his sails. With Democratic organizers on the ground feeling shaky about their chances of success, it makes more sense to place Nevada in the Tilt Republican category.
While John Fetterman (Democratic) still leads Mehmet Oz (Republican) in the majority of polling, I continue to place the Pennsylvania Senate race in the Tilt Republican category. Fetterman remains dogged by concerns over his health, following his stroke earlier this year. With Oz continuing to gain in the polls and lowering his margin against Fetterman, I continue to project that he will be the winner on election night.
Some good news for Democrats comes out of Georgia, however, as the Herschel Walker campaign to unseat incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock continues to implode following a scandal where it was revealed that not only had Walker misstated how many extramarital affairs he had engaged in, but that he also had paid for abortions in the past. This revelation was followed by a lackluster performance at the debate with Warnock, with Walker making what has widely been seen as a gaffe. While polling still indicates a close race, Walker’s inability to make any inroads into Warnock’s vote share, while Republican Brian Kemp continues gaining on Democrat Stacey Abrams in the concurrent gubernatorial race, indicates Walker’s individual weakness as a candidate.
Other News
Certain states that typically are strongly inclined to lean a certain way gubernatorially are seeing unusually competitive governors’ races due to certain, unique circumstances.
Oregon, a traditionally Democratic state, may be on track to elect a Republican as governor. The unpopularity of the incumbent Democratic governor, Kate Brown, has bled into the popularity of the Democratic Party brand as a whole in the state. Coupled with a strong centrist third-party candidate in Betsy Johnson, who seems to be siphoning far more voters from the Democrats than the Republicans, the prospect of Republican Christine Drazan winning the race by a plurality is very likely.
Oklahoma, a traditionally Republican state, is experiencing a dramatic final couple of weeks in its gubernatorial contest as what was previously seen as a safe-Republican race has become quite contentious. Most analysts attribute this to the rare intervention of the typically apolitical, yet powerful, Native tribes in the election, who have thrown their support behind the Democrat -- as the incumbent, Republican Kevin Stitt, remains hostile to the interests of the tribal nations. Despite being an enrolled member of the Cherokee Nation, Governor Stitt’s tenure has been marked by a successful effort on his part to weaken a Supreme Court ruling which had greatly expanded the power of Oklahoma’s Native tribes. Fresh off a defeat at the Supreme Court, these influential tribes are seeking to unseat Stitt as they perceive him as being anti-Native.
Several swing states are likely to see their gubernatorial elections be decided by comfortable margins due to lackluster candidates being put up by one of the parties.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans are struggling as their candidate, Doug Mastriano, is being perceived as far too extreme for the state. His Democratic opponent, Josh Shapiro, remains likely to be Pennsylvania’s next governor. On the other hand, poor candidate selection is hurting Democrats in Georgia and Arizona.
In the Peach State, Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams has failed to keep her base together in the face of an incredibly competent campaign from her Republican opponent, incumbent governor Brian Kemp. Many voters see her as opportunistic, considering her already prominent role in Democratic circles in Georgia. Her previous run for governor in 2018, where she controversially refused to clearly accept defeat, has also left a sour taste with many voters.
In Arizona, the Democratic candidate, and current secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, has decided to dodge all debates and most public appearances, while she continues to face allegations of racial discrimination in employment during her time as a state senator. She is consistently trailing her Republican opponent, Kari Lake, in opinion polling and with no real campaign, her chances of winning are slim
Thank you for reading, and one final update will be issued in the days just before the midterms.