This is the next in a series of briefings on the 2022 midterm elections, scheduled to be held in early November. The last briefing, from late August, can be found by clicking the button below. Each briefing shall include the latest forecast for the House of Representatives and Senate, as well as updates on specific races. Given how close we are to the election now, my projections below will rely on the qualitative aspects of my modeling as survey results and quantitative inputs reach the limits of their relevance.
House of Representatives
Based on my model, these are my latest projections regarding the House of Representatives election, if it were to be held today:
I continue to expect the House to flip to a Republican majority. This is to be expected, as anti-incumbency benefits the opposition party in the midterms. However, back in late August, Democrats had gained at the polls, blunting much of this advantage. While Republicans seem to have stopped their polling free-fall as GOP advertising efforts have ramped up across the nation, Republicans so far seem unable to reverse much of the polling problems they were facing in August.
The generic ballot poll input to the model gives the Democrats a 1.5% lead in the popular vote. Handicapping other data (namely President Biden’s approval rating) to adjust for selective turnout, the model currently projects a 0.2% Democratic lead in the popular vote.
Considering that the Democrats won 222 seats in 2020 to the Republicans’ 213, the model predicts that 12 seats currently held by Democrats would flip in November. This is one fewer seat than what my model projected in late August.
As mentioned earlier, greater attention is being given to individual races. For instance, Ohio’s Ninth congressional district has flipped from Tilt Republian to Tilt Democratic while Alaska’s at-large district sees Republican chances of victory decreasing. This is as a result of a local scandal and impressive incumbent approval ratings, respectively.
Senate
Based on my model, these are my latest projections regarding the US Senate election, if it were to be held today;
Unlike the methodology that projects House results above, the Senate results projections are based on a purely qualitative model, that takes into account polling data, as well as impressions of candidate quality and perceptions of the candidate among the electorate.
The two parties are currently tied at 50 senators each, and I project the net outcome to be the same, with the balance of power continuing to be held by the Democrats as Vice President Kamala Harris breaks ties in the Senate.
Arizona has been moved from Tilt Republican to Tilt Democratic. This is because, since the last update, Republican candidate Blake Masters has faced some notable hiccups regarding his election platform. Following a round of polling suggesting that a strong pro-life position is an electoral liability, Masters proceeded to wipe his campaign website of his prior positions, earning criticism from his left who dismissed this move as a cynical ploy, and some on his right who did not appreciate his willingness to waver on an issue of importance to them. Polling has indicated that Masters has taken an electoral hit from the incident; his opponent, incumbent Senator Mark Kelly, however, has failed to capitalize on that momentum in a way that knocks Masters out of the race.
Pennsylvania has been moved from Tilt Democratic to Tilt Republican. Mehmet Oz has seen a surge in his polling numbers over the last couple of weeks, while Fetterman’s numbers seem to stagnate. While most polls indicate a Fetterman victory, there are further concerns that plague the Fetterman campaign. Oz is currently running a heavily-issues-based campaign, bringing up Fetterman’s left-wing and progressive views on issues such as crime and drugs. Fetterman, meanwhile, has responded with an online campaign heavily focused on attacking Oz as a New Jersey elite who remains out of touch with Pennsylvania. If recent elections are any indicator, a traditional issues-based campaign will usually defeat online campaigns based on personality attacks, often because online campaigns do not distinguish between national and state-level momentum and voter energy.
While the rating for the Senate election in Georgia (Tilt Democratic) has not changed since last time, a recent scandal may potentially move the race further in the Democratic column in the next update. While the Republican candidate, football star Herschel Walker, has faced numerous scandals related to his family life, a recent revelation that he paid for his once-girlfriend to get an abortion in 2009 could alter the state of the race. In the aftermath of that news story, Herschel Walker’s son, Christian (who is a conservative online content creator in his own right), took to Twitter to publicly lambast his father, proceeding to additionally affirm the domestic violence allegations that Democrats had brought up earlier. While this has the potential to be damaging to the Walker campaign, the “Tilt Democratic” rating will remain until a tangible shift in voter sentiment or polling can be observed.
Thank you for reading, and another update will follow soon.