This is the second in a series of briefings on the 2022 midterm elections, scheduled to be held in early November. The last briefing, from early July, can be found by clicking the button below. Each briefing shall include the latest forecast for the House of Representatives and Senate, as well as updates on specific races and the news cycle at large.
House of Representatives
Based on my model, these are my latest projections regarding the House of Representatives election, if it were to be held today;
I continue to expect the House to flip to a Republican majority. This is to be expected, as anti-incumbency benefits the opposition party in the midterms. However, some of the previous advantage has been blunted as Democrats have gained in generic ballot polling, and President Joe Biden’s approval rating has improved from the lows set in mid-July.
The generic ballot poll input to the model gives the Democrats a 1.2% lead in the popular vote. Handicapping other data (namely President Biden’s approval rating) to adjust for selective turnout, the model currently projects a 0.25% Republican lead in the popular vote.
Considering that the Democrats won 222 seats in 2020 to the Republicans’ 213, the model predicts that 13 seats currently held by Democrats would flip in November. This is four fewer seats than what my model projected in early July.
Senate
Based on my model, these are my latest projections regarding the US Senate election, if it were to be held today;
Unlike the data-driven model that projects House results above, the Senate results projections are based on a qualitative model, that takes into account polling data, as well as impressions of candidate quality and perceptions of the candidate among the electorate.
The two parties are currently tied at 50 senators each, and I project the net outcome to be the same, with the balance of power continuing to be held by the Democrats as Vice President Kamala Harris breaks ties in the Senate.
As “primary season” has wrapped up, nominees must now execute a “pivot” to the general election, as the electorate that they have to appeal to becomes more ideologically diverse (as compared to the motivated, partisan voter who shows up for primaries). Some Republican candidates, like Republican Blake Masters of Arizona, seem to have done it well, while others, like Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, appear to be struggling.
Polling shows the Ohio Senate election to be surprisingly close, as Republican J.D. Vance seems to be struggling against Democrat Tim Ryan. However, given former-President Trump’s popularity in the state, the race is being kept at “Likely Republican” as the cohort of undecided voters probably leans towards the Republicans.
Due to Alaska's unique electoral system, it appears that the general election will be between moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski and the more conservative Republican Kelly Tshibaka. Long-time readers of my work will recall that I had sounded a warning about Murkowski’s electoral prospects last year. However, judging from the results from Alaska’s primary, Murkowski should achieve a comfortable win in November
Anything marked as “tilt” may very well change columns and will be the focus of the next piece
News on the races
The FiveThirtyEight model of the midterm elections is a helpful resource as long as its predictions are cross-checked against other resources including one’s own intuition.
Democrats have recently gained a fair amount of ground in generic ballot polling, beating Republicans head-to-head fairly consistently across different polls.
Democratic pundits credit this to an increased focus on social issues by the electorate. Recent dismal showings by Republicans in special elections in Minnesota and Nebraska, as well as the comprehensive defeat of a pro-life ballot proposition in Kansas, are used as proof to indicate that Republican positions on various social issues are out-of-touch with the electorate. Furthermore, recent polling has been showing a rising proportion of voters ranking issues like “abortion” and “social issues” above issues like “inflation” and “the economy.”
Many Republican pundits, however, warn that this trend is part of a “Labor Day bump” where Democrats temporarily benefit from vitriolic Republican primaries. This theory posits that, as the Republican nominees are able to place some distance between the primaries and their new, general-election campaign, voters warm up to the Republican message. Democratic strategists question this theory, and 2022 will be a good test of the validity of the claims from each side.
President Joe Biden also has seen his approval rating rise recently, from a nadir of around 37.5% to today’s 41% (according to FiveThirtyEight). Many suspect that a fall in gas prices coupled with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act may have spurred this recovery.
Thank you for reading, and another update will follow soon.