Midterm Situational Briefing-- Early July

July 8th 2022

This is the first of a series of briefings on the 2022 midterm elections. Until the elections, a briefing will be issued every other week unless the news cycle compels a higher frequency. Each briefing shall include the latest forecast for the House of Representatives and Senate outcomes, as well as updates on specific races. 

House of Representatives

Based on my model, this is my latest projection of what the House of Representatives election would look like if held today;

• Republicans hold the early advantage in the House of Representatives. This is to be expected, as anti-incumbency benefits the opposition party in the midterms.

• The generic ballot poll input to the model gives the Republicans a 0.8% lead in the popular vote. Handicapping other data (namely President Biden’s approval rating) to adjust for selective turnout, the model currently projects a 1.65% Republican lead in the popular vote.

• Considering that the Democrats won 222 seats in 2020 and the Republicans won 213, the model predicts that 17 seats formerly held by Democrats would flip to being held by Republicans
  

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Senate

This is my latest projection of what the US Senate elections would look like if held today;

• Unlike the data-driven model that projects House results above, the Senate results projections are based on a qualitative model, that takes into account polling data, as well as impressions of candidate quality and perceptions of the candidate among the electorate. 

• Republicans start with a slight, yet precarious advantage. While the midterm environment should be favorable to them, the specifics of the 35 seats up for election favor the Democrats, negating the broad anti-incumbency advantage the Republicans hold vis a vis the House. This is partly driven by the simple fact that more Republicans are up for re-election than Democrats. 

• Republicans have nominated candidates perceived to be sub-par in important constituencies like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, which handicaps their efforts to win in November. Having said that, Democrats may also face a challenge with candidate quality, specifically in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

• Nevada and New Hampshire are projected to see the effects of the recent Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, which gives the incumbent Democrat a fighting chance in Nevada and solidifies Maggie Hassan’s (Democratic-New Hampshire) electoral position. 

• Anything marked as “tilt” may very well change columns and will be the focus of the next piece

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 News on the races

• The FiveThirtyEight model of the midterm elections is a helpful resource as long as its predictions are cross-checked against other resources including one’s own intuition. 

• In Pennsylvania, both candidates are suffering from perception issues, with Oz’s problems being currently much more daunting than Fetterman’s. 

  • Oz has come under fire for fundraising emails that highlight the dire straits his campaign is currently in-- pundits believe that, rather than galvanizing support, they are demoralizing supporters and vindicating Republicans who oppose his candidacy throughout the current cycle.

  • On the other hand, Fetterman’s excessive focus on Oz’s status as a longtime New Jersey, while resonating initially, is perceived to be getting tiresome. Also, Fetterman’s perceived over-reliance on online campaigning is starting to show diminishing returns-- worrying his supporters. 

• Senator-Reverend Raphael Warnock (Democratic- Georgia) faces scrutiny over the use of campaign funds for improper purposes. This presents the first test for Warnock this election cycle— his opponent Herschel Walker has been dogged by recent revelations of extra-marital children previously concealed from the public eye. Given Walker was perceived to be the weaker candidate, these competing scandals are predicted to damage Walker more than Warnock. 

• The Arizona GOP is seemingly on track to nominate right-wing populist firebrands Blake Masters for the US Senate and Kari Lake for governor. My article on Arizona helps explain why the GOP is tacking so far to the right in such a purple state, and the potential pitfalls that await Masters and Lake if they are nominated.

  • The New York Times ran an article on some of Masters’ older controversial statements; his college-age skepticism about whether it was right for the United States to have fought in the Second World War has specifically led to claims of antisemitism from his primary opponents.

The next update will follow by 21 July.