Update from the Arizona Senate Race

The profiles of those who want to unseat incumbent Democratic senator Mark Kelly

Incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (Democratic) is up for re-election in 2022. There has been a busy start to the Republican side of the race, with 5 candidates officially declaring their interest in the GOP nomination. I will provide a profile of these five, as well as a bonus sixth profile of a potential candidate who, while currently on the sidelines, could make an impact if he decides to enter.

Incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (Democratic) is up for re-election in 2022. There has been a busy start to the Republican side of the race, with 5 candidates officially declaring their interest in the GOP nomination. I will provide a profile of these five, as well as a bonus sixth profile of a potential candidate who, while currently on the sidelines, could make an impact if he decides to enter.

• Jim Lamon, a renewable energy executive with ties to the Trump campaign, was the first one to declare his candidacy. His strategy appears to be utilizing Trumpist rhetoric to gain a foothold with the electorate. In his opening video, he called out “political and media elites,” accusing them of holding “the power to divide us and distract us, to amplify the angry, the lies and suppress the reasonable.” Currently, few expect his candidacy to take off, though he has elicited a significant amount of campaign donations. In addition, his past monetary contributions to the state GOP could help him acquire some influence among the Republican leadership in the state. 

• Rob Paveza, a software engineer at Microsoft, seems to be leading another longshot-bid for the GOP nomination. With little coverage in the local or national press, it will be challenging for Paveza to get the right profile. A quick look through his Twitter account appears to show a conservative-leaning libertarian primarily concerned about cutting government spending.

• Michael “Mick” McGuire, the former Adjutant General of the Arizona National Guard, is a more prominent candidate for the nomination. In his National Guard role, he recently oversaw the state’s emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic while also overseeing the day-to-day operations of the Army and Air National Guard units of the state. He also is familiar with logistics surrounding the Mexico-Arizona border, as the National Guard plays a significant role in securing the area. He will run on experience, utilizing his knowledge of bipartisan problem-solving to convey to voters he is a pragmatic option who is always willing to serve his state. Or, in his words, “As a fourth-generation Arizonan, a constitutional conservative, and someone who took an oath to protect and defend our nation, I am ready to serve again.” His main asset seems to be his name recognition and broad appeal, given the apolitical nature of his previous job.

• Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General of Arizona, is currently the strongest candidate in the race. Serving as Attorney General since 2015, he has earned a reputation as a libertarian-influenced conservative with no fear of taking on governmental institutions in courtrooms across the state and country. As attorney general, he has also had to deal with questions surrounding sanctuary cities, the Second Amendment, election law issues, and many other hot-button topics. The last-mentioned issue has led to some friction between him and former President Donald Trump, with Trump accusing Brnovich of not doing enough to substantiate his beliefs of a “stolen” election. Articulating a direct threat to Brnovich, Trump said, “Arizona was a big part [of the alleged and unproven fraud that Trump believes cost him the election] and Brnovich must put himself in gear, or no Arizona Republican will vote for him in the upcoming elections.” If Brnovich can’t get Trump on his side, that will be a significant liability and a trump card (pun intended) for opponents who seek to knock Brnovich down a peg. On the flipside, Brnovich’s two main assets are his name recognition and appeal to a wide cross-section of Republicans. In May of this year, a poll showed that among the 39% of Arizona Republicans who had made up their mind about who they would vote for in the primary, 72% said they would vote for Brnovich. In addition, while Brnovich doesn’t toe the Trump line, he also doesn’t oppose him in a significant way. The disagreement between the two is based on the issue around election auditing. This unique relationship with Trump could help him appeal to both the Arizona GOP’s moderate and more conservative factions and would be an asset in a general election. However, in a midterm-primary, where the voter base is disproportionally ideological, it remains to be seen if running in slight contradiction to Trump will affect the outcome. Having said that, Mark Brnovich, aided by his name recognition and his broad appeal, is currently the front-runner in the race and, if he can clear up his disagreements with Trump, stands a good chance of victory in the primary. Here is a link to an article I wrote previously which discusses Brnovich v. DNC, a case that Brnovich will certainly use to burnish his conservative credentials on election integrity.

• Blake Masters, the most recent candidate to enter the race, brings a uniquely populist message, rendering him a wild-card candidate in the state. The Chief Operating Officer at Thiel Capital, he landed an early endorsement from his boss: billionaire venture capitalist and conservative donor Peter Thiel. His candidacy will be an interesting indicator in gauging the power of populism and large out-of-state funding in Arizona. Masters appears to be running on a populist variant of conservatism, calling for the government to reign in the power of large corporations, which he views as being “so big, they think they are bigger than America.” In addition, one of his primary stated goals is to fight for every Arizona family to be able to survive off of one income source. Between these two statements, there is no denying that Masters hews more towards populism than traditional conservatism. Many forecasters don’t consider Arizona to be the most amicable place for the conservative-populist movement, given the state’s dramatic swing against Trump. It remains to be seen if Masters will surmount that, though this may not be as pressing of a concern in the Republican primary. In addition, it will be a good test to see how many Arizona Republicans are willing to go for a populist alternative in a primary environment. Apart from his populism, the other thing notable about Masters are his close ties to Peter Thiel, which give him an advantage from a financial perspective. Thiel has already pledged $10 million to the Saving Arizona Political Action Committee; this PAC, along with Thiel, is backing Masters. Considering this and the further prospect of additional cash from Thiel, Blake Masters may be shaping up to be the most well-funded candidate on the scene. In summary, it remains to be seen if his funding advantage can make up for his lack of name recognition, and whether Arizona Republicans will take kindly to his populism. 

An interesting candidate who is biding his time and has not confirmed or denied his potential candidacy is U.S. Representative Andy Biggs (R-AZ 05). A congressman representing the eastern portions of Maricopa County, he has become known as an extremely conservative figure in the House. He currently chairs the House Freedom Caucus: a grouping of the most conservative and libertarian-conservative Republicans in Congress, which was formed in the aftermath of the Tea Party movement. He is quite close to Trump and would probably dominate the field if he entered, based on name recognition alone. Early polls from February through April put him at around 35% of the vote if he throws his hat in the ring, which is a promising start.

The Republican Party’s voters in Arizona have splintered into pro-Trump and anti-Trump camps; none of the above candidates currently seem able to keep both factions within the Republican tent, though Brnovich probably has the best chance of doing so. Without that unity, it is unlikely that the GOP candidate, whoever that may be, will be able to mount a significant challenge to Mark Kelly in the 2022 election.