Trouble in Alaska
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) may be facing an uphill re-election battle
Dear Reader,
This piece is part of a greater “Notes on the State of Politics” issued by Sabato’s Crystal Ball. To see that piece, click below
Over the weekend, the Alaska Republican Party endorsed former Alaska Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka over three-term incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Tshibaka, more notably, is also backed by former President Donald Trump. Alaska does have a new election system that could hypothetically help Murkowski, but the lack of official support from her fellow Republicans may very well reflect a lack of support from rank-and-file Republicans in Alaska, too.
A poll from Change Research conducted in late May shows that 59% in Alaska have an unfavorable view of Murkowski, while only 26% of Alaskans view her favorably. A small 6% of Alaskan Republicans hold a favorable view of the senator while 84% disapprove of her. The same poll shows former President Donald Trump having an 85% approval rating; one can closely infer that there are few Republicans who support Trump and approve of Murkowski simultaneously. This disapproval is problematic in a state that Trump won 53%-43% in 2020. About half of independents hold an unfavorable view of her (52%) while just about a third (32%) view her favorably. One small piece of good news for Murkowski is that she is above water with Democrats, at 48%-32% favorable, with 20% neutral.
It is important to note that Change Research is a Democratic pollster. So too is Public Policy Polling, which last summer found her with very similar approval ratings (29%-55%). Additionally, a poll for Tshibaka conducted by the GOP firm Cygnal several months ago also reported weak favorability numbers for Murkowski. One could argue that all of these pollsters are incentivized to make Murkowski look bad, but the numbers are what they are and Murkowski’s position is more than a little reminiscent of former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) in the early stages of the 2018 cycle. The Trump critic later decided to retire, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) now holds his seat.
Murkowski has won very tough races before. In 2010, she won as a write-in third party option, defeating both Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams after Miller beat her in the Republican primary. However, Murkowski won in 2010 with less than 40% of the vote thanks to Alaska utilizing the first-past-the-post system at the time. However, this time around, Alaska is using a dramatically new electoral system. That system could help Murkowski because she no longer has to win a partisan primary. But it also doesn’t guarantee her victory.
A further explanation of that system is warranted. In 2020, Alaskans passed Ballot Measure 2 by a 50.5%-49.5% margin. This measure drastically changed the way down-ballot races work in the state. Previously, Alaska used the same system as many other states: candidates are nominated in partisan primaries and then advance to the general election, and the person who gets the most votes wins (in other words, there’s no runoff in the primary or the general election). Measure 2 has abolished partisan primaries and created a single jungle primary where candidates of all parties compete. The four candidates who receive the most votes then advance to the general election, which now utilizes ranked-choice voting. Voters will rank the candidates in the general election from first to fourth. If no candidate clears 50% on the first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes gets eliminated, with those votes redistributed to the other candidates based on their second-preference choices. This process of elimination and redistribution repeats until a candidate passes 50%, thereby winning the election. There is a pending lawsuit over the system in state court, but, as of now, this is the system that will be in place for next year’s elections.
Another difference between Murkowski's previous win and now is that, in 2010, her support cut more broadly across party lines. Of course, Murkowski received Democratic support, especially from Alaska's Native communities. However, she also netted support from Republicans, which was a key factor that allowed her to beat Miller in 2010. Murkowski won in 2016 with just 44%, as she faced opponents to both her left and right (she was the GOP nominee that year, though). It's clear that any route to victory for Murkowski in 2022 needs to incorporate cross-sectional support; having 84% of Republicans and 52% of independents opposed from the start, as the Change poll reports, seems like a dangerous way to start her campaign. Murkowski has not officially announced another run for office.
One wonders if Murkowski could eventually decide to leave the GOP, perhaps running as an independent and even caucusing with Democrats. While this would probably destroy what little support she has left in the Republican party, it may allow her to prevent a challenge from the left and consolidate Democratic support behind her. If these numbers are to be believed, it may be a cunning electoral strategy. However, just like Joe Manchin (D-WV), who is sometimes mentioned as a possible party-switcher, her party label may run more than skin-deep. Two decades ago, Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the GOP and became an independent who caucused with Democrats, giving the Democrats a 51-49 Senate majority in the first two years of George W. Bush’s presidency. Jeffords retired in 2006, and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) won his seat.
If Murkowski decides to remain a Republican, state Democrats may smell blood. The Change Research poll showed Murkowski failing to make it to the final two in a hypothetical three-way race between herself, Tshibaka, and Al Gross, a Democratic-aligned independent who ran in 2020 against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and could run again. In the aforementioned poll, Tshibaka received 39%, Gross received 25%, and Murkowski received 19% in the first-preference round. Interestingly, this same poll predicted Tshibaka winning 54%-46% over Gross in the final round; this is a surprisingly close result for Alaska and worrying for Tshibaka, who, as of now, is an undefined candidate. Thus, the conventional wisdom that says Democrats should defer to Murkowski and not field a challenger to her left may be incorrect, and Democrats may see an opening to flip a state that has been getting less Republican over the last two decades (but is still definitely right of center). However, one should take all of this with a grain of salt, as polling often overshot Gross's chances of victory in 2020.
The Crystal Ball still rates the Alaska Senate race Safe Republican, although that rating takes into account the possibility of either Tshibaka or Murkowski winning as Republicans. But this is becoming a more fascinating contest both because of Murkowski’s problems in her own party and the unusual election system the state has adopted.
Great post! Murkowski used to be one of the most popular US Senators in the nation. It's interesting to see how polarization has gotten her in a very unfavorable position. I have to wonder though, what about Murkowski makes her unpopular among Independents and yet popular among Democrats? Her voting record is still conservative, after all. Perhaps Democrats are just happy to have a Republican that voted for impeachment as one of their US Senators.