The 2022 calendar is fairly crowded with elections that will have meaningful consequences for domestic and international polity. In this brief piece, I want to call out a few of those which I will be writing on in detail over the coming year. Specifically, I would like to identify the following elections: four senate elections of the United States’ 2022 midterm cycle and four general elections in other countries. I would like to invite my readers to suggest an election or two that may be missing from this list which may hold special interest for them.
US Elections
On 8 November 2022, voters across the U.S. will head to the ballot box to elect their representatives, and some will also cast ballots for their senator and/or governor. The following four races are the ones that will determine the balance of power in the senate and are interesting to follow for more specific reasons.
Arizona and Nevada Senate Races
Incumbents:
Mark Kelly (Democratic-Arizona) and Catherine Cortez-Masto (Democratic-Nevada)
Relevance:
Arizona and Nevada are similar in many respects. They are both western states with sizable Hispanic populations that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Both states also have a Democratic senator up for re-election in 2022 against a Republican field that is seemingly lacking in ‘mavericks.’ In other words, both states will see a classic conservative vs. liberal battle in 2022, with the one possible exception being if Republican and right-wing populist candidate Blake Masters wins the GOP nomination in Arizona.
However, there are some key differences. Arizona is widely seen to be a state trending towards the Democrats at a steady clip. On the other hand, Nevada sees a fairly politically static electorate that is potentially trending towards the Republicans but at a snail’s pace. In addition, the Democratic Party is in a cold civil war in Nevada. Earlier in 2021, the state party leadership was taken over by a slate of Democratic Socialists, forcing the party moderates and union reps aligned with the late Harry Reid to migrate over to the Washoe County Democratic Party, where they have set up a “party-in-exile” system, declaring themselves the leaders of the united front against the GOP. While the state party is upset about this, few Democratic elected officials want to willingly associate with the Democratic Socialists of America, and therefore are playing along with the Washoe Democrats. This disunity may help the Republicans.
In Arizona, on the other hand, the narrative of Democratic party disunity is more likely an attempt by Republicans to sow dissent. Mark Kelly is being painted as an “out of touch liberal” by contrasting him to his more centrist counterpart Kyrsten Sinema. As explained in my earlier piece, the idea is to appeal to moderates and nudge them towards a Sinema-style Democratic Party and away from Kelly. However, this is a questionable strategy, given that Sinema’s approval among Arizona Democrats languishes between 5%-20% and is barely above the mid 30% range with independents.
Furthermore, this strategy has failed in the past. In 2008, Republicans used similar tactics to try to bring down Democrat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, comparing her to the more conservative Louisiana Democrat, sitting Senator John Breaux. She ended up winning that race regardless, with some pundits commenting that the constant mention of John Breaux may have had a perverse impact: it reminded voters that the Democratic Party was a big tent with both centrists and liberals, and thus it was fine to vote Democratic.
Therefore, these two senate races are definitely on my radar for very similar reasons. They will be leading indicators of how much Biden’s weakness on suburban issues hurts his party, and will also indicate how much disunity can the Democrats handle.
Georgia Senate Race
Incumbent:
Reverend Raphael Warnock (Democratic)
Relevance:
This race will be interesting in assessing the long-term success of Stacey Abrams’ organizing prowess. Georgia was one of Biden’s most narrow wins, and intuitive logic suggests that it should be an easy GOP win if Biden is already staring at an unfavorable political environment. However, Stacey Abrams, whose organizing efforts are arguably the main reason that pushed Democrats over the finish line in 2020, has made it patently obvious that her organizing goes on regardless of Biden or his approval rating. Furthermore, the Georgia GOP is suffering from significant infighting between Trump-loyalists and traditional conservative Republicans who want to move on from Trump. While the Democrat, Raphael Warnock, will probably be the underdog as he fights for re-election, it’s important to remember that it isn’t a clear GOP victory just yet due to the infighting in the state party. Initial polling shows the GOP frontrunner (and Trump-supported) candidate Herschel Walker leading Raphael Warnock 47% to 44%. While prima facie these numbers may not look good for Warnock, it’s worth noting that the same poll puts Biden’s approval at 31% in the state, implying Warnock is running far ahead of Biden’s approval.
Pennsylvania Senate Race
Incumbent:
None (Open race)
Relevence:
Pennsylvania, a state that straddles the Atlantic Seaboard and the Rust Belt, faces a very interesting senate race in this cycle because, not only is there no incumbent, but both parties have come into this election without a clear frontrunner in their respective primaries.
This senate race is obviously important because it will be one of the closest races in this competitive season. However, more than that, it will also be interesting to see who comes out on top in the primaries for either party. On the Democratic side, the two leading candidates, John Fetterman and Conor Lamb, each have their own advantages. Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor of the state, is quite charismatic and is a larger-than-life presence, and is currently leading in the polls. He also has a large social media following and is a typical progressive Democrat. However, Conor Lamb, a more moderate Democrat representing western Pennsylvania in Congress, has racked up endorsements from key unions and Democratic officials. It will be interesting to see if the Pennsylvania Democratic machine, which appears to have lined up behind Lamb so far, will do enough to get Lamb across the line in the primaries. Round one conducted this week seems to have thrown up no clear winner yet.
On the Republican side, the entrance of TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz will be an interesting case study about the power of celebrity status on state-level elections. Oz, while admittedly having some ties to Pennsylvania, has been a long-time New Jersey resident who only recently moved back to Pennsylvania; this may open him up to “carpet-bagging” attacks from Democrats and fellow Republicans alike. Dr. Oz awaits a serious challenge, as the previous frontrunner Sean Parnell (Trump-endorsed) had to drop out due to allegations of domestic abuse.
Thus Pennsylvania remains an interesting race that is still so open this late in the cycle.
International Elections
French Presidential Election
Date:
April 10 (Round 1) and April 24 (Round 2)
Election method:
Two-tier runoff election unless a candidate clears 50.01% in Round 1.
Who is the incumbent:
Emmanuel Macron (of the centrist LREM party)
Who are the main opponents:
Marine Le-Pen (of the right-wing RN party), Eric Zemmour (of the far-right REC party), and Jean Luc-Melenchon (of the far-left LFI party).
Relevance:
France has always been one of the most crucial players in Europe, especially at this moment. While the European Union is still being tested, it is far more stable today as compared to five to seven years ago due to strong Europhillic leadership over that period in both Germany and France. A loss by Emmanuel Macron, especially to someone on the far-right like Le Pen or Zemmour, could pose a very sudden and dramatic challenge to the European project as it is currently constituted.
One very unique dynamic at play in France is the complete and total collapse of the center-left, which has appeared to have bled all of its voters to either the far left (led by Jean-Luc Melenchon) or the center (led by incumbent Emmanuel Macron). There is even a possibility of the center-left having bled voters to some of the more populist right-wing parties who are focused more on social issues than economics.
While Macron remains the most likely to win, it is important not to underestimate the challenge that someone like Le Pen poses to him. There is a reason that most commentators agree that Macron has veered to the right on certain social matters; he knows that he needs to ensure he doesn’t bleed votes to Le Pen due to his party’s social liberalism.
Hungarian General Election
Date:
April 3
Election method:
106 seats elected by single-member First-past-the-post voting, 93 seats elected by a proportional system.
Who is the incumbent:
PM Viktor Orban and his right-wing Fidesz party.
Who are the main opponents:
The United for Hungary (center-right to left) bloc of opposition parties aligned against him led by Peter Marki-Zay.
Relevance:
At first, the elections held in a relatively-small Eastern European country may not strike Americans as being significant. However, Hungary currently serves as a significant thorn in the EU’s side over recent decisions that the EU feels are too socially conservative and/or anti-democratic. Alongside Poland, Hungary, under its current PM Viktor Orban, has been viewed as holding the EU back in various regards. In Hungary itself, almost every opposition party from the center-right to the left-wing has united into a broad front with the singular aim of ousting Orban from power. While Orban was previously viewed as too popular to remove, a united opposition could pose a threat as Hungary still utilizes first-past-the-post to allocate just above half of its parliamentary seats, with the balance allocated proportionally.
Additionally, Hungary has seen much interest from certain conservative thought leaders due to Orban promoting a very different, “big government conservatism,” utilizing nationalism to argue for center-left economic policy and right-wing positions on social issues. Orban has also appeared on FOX’s Tucker Carlson Tonight, one of the most highly rated primetime shows in the US. Its host, Mr. Carlson, has personally traveled to Hungary at least twice to interview Mr. Orban as well as to meet up with his government ministers.
The fall of the Orban government may quickly undo many of these contentious policies and would be a setback to the right-wing populist movement.
Australian General Election
Date:
Sometime before 3 September
Election method:
All 151 seats elected by single-member First-past-the-post voting.
Who is the incumbent:
PM Scott Morrison (of the Liberal Party) and his center-right to right Liberal-National coalition.
Who are the main opponents:
The Labor Party (center-left to left) led by Anthony Albanese
Relevance:
After the inexplicably large polling error in 2019 that confidently, yet incorrectly, predicted a Labor (center-left to left) victory, the polls are once again predicting a Labor victory. However, dissatisfaction with the current government is high, with the incumbent PM Scott Morisson (hailing from a party called the Liberals, but situated on the conservative end of the political spectrum) seen as not-up-to-task of dealing with the issues of brush fires and managing the complexity of threading the line between the China-antagonistic bloc (of the US and UK) and the more neutral France (remember the recent submarine deal). On the other hand, Anthony Albanese, the Labor party’s leader, is perceived to be closely aligned with the left-wing of his party, which may be a turnoff for more moderate voters.
Australia’s elections will matter for Americans who are concerned about China, as Australia will play an integral part in any increase in tensions between the West and China. Considering that the Labor party seems to argue that Australia is zooming too fast towards the American camp at the expense of more neutral allies, China-hawks may be more inclined towards the incumbent party.
Brazillian Presidential Election
Date:
October 2 (Round 1) and October 30 (Round 2)
Election method:
Two-tier runoff election unless a candidate clears 50.01% in Round 1.
Who is the incumbent:
Jair Bolsanaro (of the right-wing Liberal Party, abbreviated as PL)
Who is the main opponent:
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (abbreviated as PT). The Workers’ Party is a big-tent encompassing the entirety of the left, from center-left to far-left.
Relevance:
Brazil’s elections will serve as the ultimate test of the strength of a second pink-wave sweeping South America. 2020 and 2021 saw socialists winning presidencies in Bolivia and Chile, and a communist win the presidency of Peru. Combined with the “socialists” currently running Venezuela, this places the South American Left in a pretty powerful place heading in 2022. In Brazil itself, most polls show the incumbent right-wing candidate Jair Bolsanaro heading to a resounding loss against ex-president and social democrat Lula Inacio da Silva. If Lula can topple Bolsonaro, it would place the South American Left back into the dominant position it held in the early 2010s.
Lula’s victory may have an adverse effect on the international standing of the South American economy, as a powerful pan-Latin-American Left may spook international investors. It would also make the point that the South American middle class no longer believes that the Right can guarantee economic prosperity in an equitable fashion.
Conclusion
This list is not exhaustive, there are many more elections that will be featured on this blog, and I would love reader suggestions. However, these eight races will take top priority for me as I believe them to be important, and I look forward to an exciting and informative 2022 with all of you!
Wow nice Parakram. Did you abandon the statewide analysis? I would enjoy reading them especially about red states that I didn’t have much insights into. What about the house race? Predictions for the house, which the Dems are predicted to lose badly, but how badly is the question. I’d be interested to know your viewpoints on that.
A few big elections come up in Indian states of UP, Punjab, Goa. I don’t know if you follow Indian elections, but next year is Modis litmus test. This year is just the preview.
Keep writing. Beautiful analysis.