The drama around the election of the new Speaker of the House makes the November election seem very far in the past – and I have to admit, it delayed my putting this piece together as I was fascinated by the process. I remain curious about the way forward now that Kevin McCarthy has finally managed to seal the deal, albeit with the absolute slimmest of margins.
Having said that, here are my thoughts about the November election now that the Georgia senate races have also been decided. First – a mea culpa – and in this, I take scant solace in the fact that I am one of many having to do this – I overestimated Republican prospects in both the House and the Senate. Republicans were able to secure a majority in the House, as I expected, but by a much slimmer margin than I had predicted. Furthermore, my prediction of Republicans being able to flip the US Senate was incorrect, as instead of my expected 51/49 Republican majority, voters actually returned the Democrats an expanded majority, netting them an additional senator and ending the 50/50 deadlock in the chamber.
A quick aside-- while some drama emerged in DC when Senator Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona) announced her change in party affiliation from Democratic to “Arizona Independent,” this did not fundamentally change the numeric balance of the Senate. This is because Senator Sinema continues to caucus with Democrats and thus is no different from her fellow independent senators (Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Angus King from Maine) who count towards Democratic strength in the chamber.
The reasons for Democratic success and Republican underperformance are complicated and combine some national trends and issues and some regional factors. Candidate quality played an important role, and input into the zeitgeist from a range of players – the Supreme Court, to President Trump, to the Biden/Pelosi/Schumer triumvirate – all influenced voting patterns, for better or worse.
To focus on a few issues and a few states that made a difference, I will briefly touch upon the effect of Dobbs and ‘candidate quality’ and separately look at New York as it relates to the House and Georgia for the Senate. Those two states were instrumental when the tally was done to deliver the House to the Republicans and the Senate to the Democrats. Regarding issues that seem to matter, while the economy, inflation, and gas prices were top of mind, the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion and the quality of candidates put up by both parties seem to have played a very critical role.
New York
In retrospect, while almost all of us following the election overestimated Republican prospects in the House, what was even more unexpected was that the fundamental prediction of the House flipping control also seemed up in the air on election night. In the end, the Republicans won by the slimmest of margins, and – and one of the main contributing factors to the final tally in favor of Republicans was their success in New York House races. In the final analysis, though his candidacy fell short, Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin made a significant difference to Republican prospects across the state, delivering 11 out of New York’s 26 House seats to the Republicans, which marked a gain of 4 seats since 2020. Given the slim margin the party enjoys in the House, it’s important to acknowledge the impact of this swing. Zeldin’s appeal cut across the majority of the state’s geographical blocks, and his ‘strong on crime’ message was skillfully presented in NY’s hyper-crowded media markets – which lifted all boats and led to an impressive performance for the Republicans in a state that was +23 for Biden in 2020.
Furthermore, we have to give a nod to the issues raised by the current “culture war.” While the general analysis has formulated the thesis that Republican focus on this hurt them across the board, I believe the truth is more nuanced. Many conservative figures who have served as major actors in this movement come from the coastal parts of the country, including New York (prominent right-wing influencer ‘Libs of Tik Tok’ hails from Brooklyn, NY, for instance). These people may have inadvertently baked their own biases into their messaging. Thus I believe that while the “culture war” messaging driven by the more coastal-elite section of the conservative movement fell flat in most of the country, it found some resonance in New York and California, another state where Democratic underperformance cost them in the House.
Georgia
Georgia saw the Walker/Warnock race go to a runoff. The state did not see a Democratic sweep--Brian Kemp handily beat Stacey Abrams in the gubernatorial contest – but despite this momentum behind them, Republicans failed to unseat incumbent Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock and lost the Senate because of it. This defeat is mainly being chalked up to the nomination of Herschel Walker, one of many candidates about whom the electorate and the pundit class had a lot of questions – from competence to character. Ultimately, disastrous debate performances and scandals from his personal life that came to light late in the race sank Walker, giving Warnock enough votes to take his seat for the full term.
While on the topic of candidate quality – Pennsylvania deserves mention too. It was obvious from the beginning that it would be an uphill struggle for Mehmet Oz on the Republican ticket. Influential endorsements notwithstanding, Oz struggled with raising funds and enthusiasm and was dogged by accusations of carpetbagging, having lived most of his recent life in New Jersey. On the other hand, John Fetterman was a well-known and well-liked figure, and the race seemed to be coasting for a reasonably easy finish in favor of the Democrats. That was until Fetterman suffered a medical condition that led to a significant speech impediment coupled with a suspicion of cognitive impairment. In the aftermath of that, Fetterman decided to stay in the race, but the polls shifted in Oz’s favor, and many, myself included, thought an Oz victory to be the more likely outcome. However, in the final tally, Oz fell short. Fetterman’s message appealing to Pennsylvania’s large segment of blue-collar voters carried the day – that he ran for ‘..anyone that ever got knocked down that got back up’- as well as robust support from Biden and other senior Democratic functionaries who all showed up on to campaign for him in the final weeks before the election.
Another issue that seems to have stung Republicans more than they budgeted for was the Dobbs decision. Single women as a voting group lean Democratic already – but the Supreme Court’s decision further alienated this block, moving margins even more towards the Democrats. This made the difference in states like Michigan, where a specific abortion-related measure was on the ballot – leading to a top-to-bottom sweep for the Democrats, partly fueled by women voting strongly on it, and the spillover effect of the entire Democratic slate benefiting across the board on that ballot.
I want to sign off by going back to where we began – the election of Kevin McCarthy as House speaker. After 15 rounds of voting, a compromised rules package that gives a fair bit of power to conservative hardliners, and the potential for a disruption-filled session where McCarthy struggles to control his flock – it would seem logical to think this comes from the slim margin of 222/212 that the Republicans have in the House. Having said that, I would like to tip my hat to Nancy Pelosi and her masterful shepherding of the Democratic majority and partnering with President Biden and majority leader Chuck Schumer to achieve significant legislative success – also with exactly a 222/212 tally! It will be interesting to see how the McCarthy-led House evolves and tackles the agenda – and I hope to write my next piece on that topic once the House gets to serious work now that the leadership issue has been settled.