Germany's Upcoming Election
Germany goes to the polls this September to mark the start of the post-Merkel era
One of the most vibrant democracies in the Western world is the Federal Republic of Germany. Fusing both American, British, European, and local influences, the political system was formed from the ashes of the Nazi regime to serve as a democratic means of administration for the Western part of Germany. Coming up on 73 years of sustained German democracy, an election will be held on the 26th of September to elect a new parliament. This new parliament will ultimately select a new Chancellor for Germany.
Germany is a parliamentary democracy at the national level. On election day, all seats of Bundestag (the name of the German parliament) are up for election. Germany uses a complex electoral procedure to ensure that seats are allotted proportionally (i.e., a party that wins 32% of the vote will receive 32% of the seats). Parties then have to build a coalition that controls over 50% of the Bundestag. Once this is done, these parties form “the Government,” and the leader of this bloc becomes the Chancellor.
This election is crucial as it will determine the successor to the current Chancellor, Angela Merkel. Serving since 2005 as chancellor of Germany, she has announced her intention to finally retire after this election. This makes the outcome of this election even more relevant, as Merkel leaves some pretty big shoes to fill. Due to Germany's economic power and the refusal to go back to the dark history of German nationalism and isolationism, the chancellor of Germany inherently serves as the largest power broker in the European Union (EU). During Merkel’s tenure, she has presided over the European economic and migrant crises. The way she handled these crises was not universally popular; Greece almost left the eurozone and Britain pulled out of the European Union in response, in large part, to her leadership. However, considering many pundits were predicting the complete collapse of the EU in the mid-2010s, many consider her leadership impressive. The EU in 2020 is far more unified and its powers broader than in 2005, in large part thanks to Merkel.
Whoever her successor is will have to deal with the EU’s place in the 21st century. In the rising cold war between the US and China, the EU can stay neutral for only so long. Which side will they take? What about the relationship between the EU and Russia? Will the EU finally live up to its promise of defending human rights, or will it continue to shill for Russian natural gas via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. On the topic of human rights, the defiance shown by Poland and Hungary to EU mandates on democratic governance and LGBTQ+ rights will have to be addressed by the EU soon. How will the new chancellor hold these two countries accountable, if they even plan to do so? Clearly, any new government has its work cut out for them on the European and international stage. Other issues concern the return to normalcy from COVID and economic recovery. Background issues also still lurk, such as immigration.
On election day, Germans will choose from six different parties. This article will serve as a primer to these six parties. Let’s examine what those parties are and what they stand for. The parties are discussed from farthest right to farthest left:
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)-Alternative for Germany
Currently in opposition
Alternative for Germany, abbreviated AfD, is the furthest right party in the Bundestag. Formed in 2013 from a euro-skeptic (opposes the EU) group within the Christian Democratic Union (see the Union party below), it took off in response to Merkel’s actions during the European migrant crisis. Merkel decided to let one million refugees into Germany; many of these refugees did not assimilate, and many publicized instances of the refugees sexually assaulting Germans were recorded. In response, the AfD took a hard turn to the right, becoming more Euroskeptic and critical of Islam within Germany.
The AfD currently stands as an unashamedly nationalist party, an unusual phenomenon in German politics. It believes that the German government must put the interests of Germans first, including protection of their ethnicity, culture, and sovereignty. It stands in opposition to multiculturalism and immigration, particularly Muslim immigration. They believe that whatever few immigrants Germany should accept must be willing to discard their own culture and completely assimilate into German culture.
Their politics are often driven by culture, and this extends to their economic positions as well. They believe that Germany should exit the eurozone and go back to its old currency: the Deutschemark. They also believe that Germans should have more control over their own government, and therefore support efforts like direct democracy and expanding the powers of referendums in Germany. While against foreign war, they support mandatory conscription. They also support traditional gender roles and oppose gay marriage and feminism. The party strongly supports Israel, and it previously called for close ties with Trump’s America. However, their view of the US has cooled under Biden, and they also support maintaining close ties with Russia. Finally, the party denies climate change.
The party is considered to have two main factions. The first is the more moderate faction, which focuses primarily on building German nationalism and opposing EU involvement in German affairs. Most leaders of the AfD come from this faction, especially on the national level. This faction supports small amounts of skilled immigration. They also view German nationalism as a unifying element and criticize the practice of conflating German nationalism with the Holocaust. They have a focus on reclaiming nationalist language from their Nazi connotations. The second faction, called Der Flügel (English: the wing), is much more hard-line. They are more focused on preserving the German race and promoting good ties with other right-wing countries, such as Hungary and Poland. This group is under investigation by German intelligence for threatening the liberal order of the Constitution of Germany, and many of their leaders can be described as fascists (according to German courts).
The AfD is currently polling at around 9%-12%. It has previously won 13% and 5% in 2017 and 2013, respectively. Its support base comes from economically deprived areas concerned with immigration. Every other party refuses to form a coalition with them due to a long-standing principle in Germany of refusing to collaborate with the far-right.
Unionspartieien-The Union
Currently in Government
As the name suggests, the Union is a coalition of two parties: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU). Of these two, the CDU operates in 15 of Germany’s states, and the CSU operates in one: Bavaria (think of the city of Munich and Oktoberfest). The two parties are very similar in their beliefs, although the CSU is slightly more conservative. The agenda and leadership of the Union are dominated by the senior member: the CDU.
The Christian Democratic Union is often considered the quintessential German party. Sitting on the center-right, it was founded in 1949 as a grouping of centrists and conservatives who had played roles in the resistance to the Nazi Party. Combined with a strong leader named Konrad Adenauer, they became the first party to lead postwar West Germany. Combining rigorous anti-Communism, a rejection of nationalism, and patriotism based on collaboration with the rest of Europe, they played an important part in creating a new right in Germany not steeped in Nazism. As time went on, ex-Nazis were drawn to the party over similar economic positions and hatred of the left, but the CDU made sure not to let them gain too much influence.
After a stint in opposition following Adenauer, the CDU produced another famous German leader: Helmut Kohl. Forming a coalition with the liberal Free-Democratic Party in 1983 (discussed later), he presided over the end of the Cold War and, far more importantly, German reunification. While Kohl is remembered quite positively for this, he lost the 1998 election due to his inability to manage the economic crisis resulting from the merger of the advanced West German economy and the backward eastern one. The other famous German leader from the CDU is Angela Merkel herself.
The CDU and CSU stand for an ideology called Christian Democracy, usually classified on the center-right. The CDU strongly opposes the far-left and also opposes the far-right. Christian Democrats support traditional institutions, believing that churches, small businesses, and other community centers form the backbone of society, not German nationalism or the federal government. However, they do support limited forms of welfare as part of the Christian value of compassion for the suffering. They support the free market and privatization of certain state industries but also encourage cooperation between German companies rather than competition. On social issues, they stand for the status quo. In other words, no further leftism and no conservative backsliding. They support German multiculturalism, but often with a dose of skepticism. They urge that immigrants assimilate into German culture and be willing to renounce their former citizenship, though not necessarily their old customs.
On foreign relations, they stand for close cooperation with the EU and international diplomacy based on human rights. However, this position is often negotiable, as seen with how they are perfectly fine with dealing with Russia and China. They also support the usage of the German military to assist in American-led anti-terror measures. They also pledge to center the fight against climate change in the next government.
The current leader of the CDU-led Union is Armin Laschet, who is famous for building closer links between the CDU and Turkish immigrant communities. He is also in favor of expanding German worldwide influence, often in controversial ways, including utilizing the German military to bolster international peacekeeping efforts. He stands for further European integration and multiculturalism, but also social conservatism.
His most urgent task is healing the divide between his own party, which has failed to find a coherent message post-Merkel. After some suspicion, Laschet seems to have tentatively been able to do this, saving the party from further electoral hemorrhaging. The party is currently in coalition with the Social Democrats (described later) and is willing to coalition with all parties except AfD and The Left (described later).
This current government is unusual because it is a “Grand Coalition”: the CDU and the Social Democrats are the traditional rivals of each other. However, they agreed to come together in 2017 to unify Germany in quite a tumultuous state economically and culturally.
The party’s traditional support base is middle-class religious communities. It currently polls around 28-35%. It has previously won 33% and 41% in 2017 and 2013, respectively. It is currently polling in the 25% to 35% range.
Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP)-Free Democratic Party
Currently in Opposition
The FDP is the party for German liberalism, which is quite different from American liberalism and is much closer to libertarianism. European liberalism tends to combine three tenants: free-market capitalism, international cooperation, and social progressivism. Formed in 1948 in the aftermath of World War II, the party is one of the most important power-brokers in German politics. It has never led a government; it prefers to take over sub-positions in the cabinet of a prospective chancellor. It has joined in both leftist and conservative coalitions before and seems willing to do so in the future.
In terms of economics, the FDP is probably one of the most conservative parties in the Bundestag. They support the privatization of many government services and generally frown upon government intervention in the markets, whether that government is German or European. They also are skeptical of mass immigration for economic reasons, preferring a focus on skilled immigration that doesn’t burden Germany’s welfare systems. However, they support dual citizenship and aren’t super big on forcing cultural assimilation.
By contrast, the party takings left-leaning positions on social issues. They support causes like marijuana legalization, drug decriminalization, and LGBTQ+ causes. They also are concerned about government overreach into the internet and generally frown on intense European internet copyright law.
Finally, they support European cooperation, especially when it comes to the single market. However, they also support streamlining European bureaucracy and cutting down on the extravagance of the European government. Outside of the focus on efficiency in EU institutions, their foreign policy is quite similar to the other center-left parties in the Bundestag.
The party mainly derives its support from the self-employed and young professionals, both fickle groups, regarding voter turnout. In 2013, the FDP failed to qualify for the Bundestag, missing the 5% threshold required to win any seats. However, in 2017, it won 11%, and polling is currently predicting that they will win around 13% of the seats this time around. However, they are currently in a bit of a polling surge, and their numbers could go even higher.
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen-Alliance 90/The Greens
Currently in Opposition
First, the name should be cleared up. The old Green party (Die Grünen) was formed in the late 70s in Germany and fought for environmental issues. When German reunification came around, they merged with a group of anti-communist environmentalists from the East called “Alliance 90”. Therefore, the full name of the party is “Alliance 90/ The Greens”. However, they are usually just called the Greens.
This election will be a big one for the Greens, as they have taken off from a peripheral party and are threatening to displace the Social Democrats for the second-largest party in the Bundestag. They have come a long way from its founding; the party started radically as a student environmentalist movement. The first elected members often refused to wear suits and engage in Bundestag formalities. However, they have moderated quite a bit since then, even serving in government between 2002 and 2005. In 2013 and 2017, they netted around 9% of the vote. However, polling is indicating their performance to be somewhere in the 15%-20% range for this election.
The party today mainly draws its support from left-leaning middle and upper-class voters in urban peripheries. The Greens focus on combatting climate change through sustainable energy. They are strongly anti-coal and, interestingly, anti-nuclear. On other issues, they try to combine a focus on social justice with pragmatism; the only people they refuse to work with are populists. They are extremely globalist and pro-European in their outlook on world affairs and are primarily focused on, of course, combatting climate change through international cooperation.
The Greens also support feminism, cannabis legalization, and the German welfare system. They are also considered the most pro-LGBTQ+ party in the Bundestag, and many LGBTQ+ people vote for them regardless of their own political beliefs. The Greens are currently pushing for greater acceptance of transgender people in German society and for unconditional amnesty to all LGBTQ+ people worldwide.
Their leader Annalena Baerbock is quite popular among Germany’s youth. However, she does face some criticism for failing to clearly define what the Greens stand for in 2021. Some pundits warn that she is falling into the “Hillary Clinton trap,” where she is more focused on defining what she isn’t than what she is.
In summary, the Greens are a pragmatic party of the affluent and well-off center-left. While some of their more extreme momentum has worn off, they are still projected to gain quite a bit of vote-share this election. Their leader is mildly popular and definitely isn’t a turn-off from the party.
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD)-Social Democratic Party of Germany
Currently in Government
The Social Democratic Party, or the SPD, is the oldest German party of all of the major six, and it has quite a storied past. Started in 1875, it was originally a Marxist party that fought for worker’s rights in quite radical ways. By the early 1900s, it had moderated a bit and sought to achieve socialism by democratic and economic reforms, not by revolution. In 1912, it actually won a plurality of the vote in the German election, and leftist parties around the world held it up as a model of what electoral success could look like, and by World War 1, it was the largest Marxist party in the world. However, the SPD controversially supported the German war effort, upending the traditional leftist belief in “no war but class war.” This lost them international allies, and radicals left the party and formed splinter groups.
In the instability post-WW1, they were able to take a large part in the administration of the Weimar Republic, and they focused on pragmatic leftist policies, such as fighting for greater collective-bargaining rights. However, by the early 30s, this was overshadowed by their paramilitary actions, which saw SPD-aligned armed groups engage in streetfighting with Nazi and Communist partisans in the cities of Germany. In response, the SPD was severely cracked down on, and its leaders were sent to concentration camps.
After the war, the allies allowed the SPD to return in West Germany, noting its opposition to both Nazism and Communism. The allies reasoned it was a safe alternative on the left to the CDU/CSU bloc. However, they struggled in the immediate aftermath of the war; the CDU tied the SPD to the specter of Communism sweeping Eastern Europe, even with the SPD’s condemnation of authoritarian Communism. This finally changed in 1959, when the SPD formally gave up its commitment to Marxism and truly became a center-left party. Combined with the strong leadership of Willy Brandt, the SPD was able to govern the country for large parts of the 70s. They have become the traditional rival of the CDU and challenge it from the left.
Today, they stand for modern social democracy, a moderated version of socialism that seeks to achieve socialistic goals within a capitalist framework. Most political theorists believe social democracy is the form of capitalism closest to Marxian economics. The SPD pushes for a well-regulated market and a strong welfare state. They push for social liberalism and support social justice for disadvantaged groups. There are two main factions in the SPD: the moderates and the leftists. Moderates mainly argue that the SPD must balance the desire for a strong welfare state with the dangers of borrowing too heavily from future generations. They are also focused more on social progressivism. Leftists believe that Germany shouldn’t be concerned about its debt, and they also focus more on trade union rights. In terms of foreign relations, the SPD is globalist and pro-European, grounded in traditional Marxian views of international solidarity. However, they are proponents of the liberal world order and sharply criticize China and Russia.
The SPD is expected to perform poorly in this election. Many of their former voters are still disappointed in the decision of the SPD to form a coalition government with their classic opponents: the Union. These voters view it as a betrayal of the core values of the SPD, and many of these voters have defected to the Greens or the Left (described below). Outside of trade unions, which form the core constituency of the SPD, they are bleeding voters badly. Minority voters and more upper-class leftists are going to the right or the Greens, and young voters are going to the Left. This can also be seen within a larger trend in Europe since 2010, where social democratic and labor parties across the continent are doing poorly. While winning 25% and 20% in 2013 and 2017, they are expected to net around 15% of the vote this time around. While they traditionally are the second-largest party in the Bundestag, this result could mean them sinking to third place, behind CDU/CSU and the Greens.
Die Linke-The Left
Currently in Opposition
Die Linke forms the farthest left group in the German parliament, with its members ranging from extreme Social Democrats to Communists. It formed as a union of two smaller groups: the Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS) and a faction of the Social Democrats called the WASG. The PDS is the successor to the Socialist Unity Party: the Soviet-aligned communist party that ruled East Germany from the late 40s to 1990. By contrast, the WASG was a splinter group from the SPD that felt that maintaining the capitalist framework was immoral and true leftists must reject capitalism altogether.
While these two groups have merged and no longer run independently in elections, they still both exist in some sense as the two main, unofficial factions within the party. The eastern wing of the party, descended from the PDS, is much more effective than the western wing. It is also, comparatively, less radical. What unites all members of Die Linke is the belief that capitalism must be destroyed, either by reform or revolution. The party favors massive government intervention in the German economy and massive government spending on social programs. They want to make the German tax system more progressive, easing the burden on the poorer and dramatically raising taxes on the wealthy. They support anti-trust legislation to break up big business and favor the creation of co-operatives. They also push for a complete ban on oil and gas fracking. In the longer term, Die Linke seeks to push for proposals that threaten the overthrow of capitalistic power structures. The Western branches tend to view this final objective as far more urgent than the eastern branches.
On foreign politics, Die Linke calls for the complete withdrawal of the German military from around the world. The party is incredibly critical of NATO and other structures they view as perpetuating American imperialism and hegemony. This includes the EU; Die Linke opposes the capitalistic practices of the European Union while simultaneously pushing for greater European solidarity outside of it. However, Die Linke clearly believes that Germany’s responsibility doesn’t lie with the already developed Europe, but rather the underdeveloped countries in the global south.
The party is known for being quite shaky in its commitments to human rights when it comes to one country: Russia. Elements of the eastern wing of Die Linke still have fond memories of the USSR and believe that Germany should be more friendly to Russia. However, the western wing can be critical of Russian aggression and human rights violations. The party often finesse the differences by criticizing Russia’s opponents, sidestepping the Russian question.
It should be noted as, just like the AfD, wings of the party are under investigation for threatening the constitutional order of Germany. Specifically, Communist and anti-Capitalist groups within Die Linke have been in and out of courtrooms for a decade challenging surveillance from German security forces for their ties to Russia and Cuba, in addition to the issues regarding compliance to the constitution.
Die Linke has a solid following of around 7% to 10% of German voters. It netted around 9% in both 2013 and 2017 and is projected to perform similarly in 2021. Its main followers are industrial workers in the east of Germany and student radicals in the west. Their strength in the east comes from nostalgia for independent East Germany, largely caused by the destruction of the eastern economy upon reunification with the west.
So what could a future German government look like?
If polling is to be trusted, no party will be getting anywhere near 50% of the vote this election. Because of this, a prospective chancellor will need to form a coalition to remain in power. However, it is looking pretty clear that any governing coalition will be led by either the Union or the Greens. At this early stage, parties are still keeping their cards close to them on which parties they would be willing to work with, so it’s unclear what type of coalition would form. As election time gets closer, I will release another article detailing which parties seem willing to work with each other and what a governing coalition might look like.