Is Gavin Newsom in Trouble?
Recent polling shows a tightening race in the California Recall
A recent poll by Emerson College in collaboration with Nexstar Media shows that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) may have a larger issue than he may have thought when it comes to defeating his recall effort. It shows that 43% of California voters support a recall effort, while 48% oppose, with 9% undecided. On Tuesday, another poll, this time from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found 47% support for the recall, with 50% opposed.
The recall is Tuesday, Sept. 14.
In the Emerson poll, the recall is supported by independents (54% support) and Hispanics (48% support, 44% oppose). On four key issues (COVID, wildfires, droughts, homelessness), pluralities of voters consider Newsom’s responses to be poor, including a 52% majority on homelessness. That said, Newsom still has the support of Black Californians (70%) and voters who hold a college degree (56%), as well as the backing of his native Bay Area (58%). In addition, his approval rating sits at 49%, which is not a bad place to be before an election. However, these two recent polls are disappointing for Newsom when compared to the other most recent nonpartisan poll, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) in May, which suggested that 57% would vote against a recall.
California recall ballots have two questions on them. The first asks whether a voter would like to see the incumbent governor recalled. This one simply demands a yes-or-no answer. If the “No” side wins a majority of the vote, Newsom gets to stay in office. However, the second question seeks to provide an answer for the next step if “Yes” wins in question one: voters select, from a list of candidates, the person they wish to see become governor in the event Newsom must step down. If “Yes” from the first question wins a majority, the candidate from the second question with the most votes becomes the next governor of California.
Will Newsom lose his job? Those who argue yes often point to historical precedent. The most famous California recall in recent history was in 2003, where Democratic Gov. Gray Davis was successfully recalled and replaced with famous actor and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. The unpopular Democrat presided over an economic downturn, an energy crisis, and a surging deficit; one poll found his approval rating at just 24%. On Election Day, 55% of Californians voted to remove Davis from office. Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger received 48.6% of the votes on the second question, granting him a plurality and the keys to the governor’s mansion. He was re-elected to a full term in 2006. Some believe that Newsom is in a similar spot to Davis. Earlier this year, Schwarzenegger told Politico’s Carla Marinucci, “It's pretty much the same atmosphere today as it was then. There was dissatisfaction, to the highest level. And it's the same with the momentum. Something that sets it off to a higher level, kind of the straw that breaks the camel's back ... like an explosion.”
On the other hand, many argue that there are stark differences between 2003 and 2021. In 2004, around the time of the Davis recall, Republicans won 44% of the vote in the presidential election and the party was more competitive down the ballot. By 2020, the Republican presidential share had fallen to 34%. While it should be noted that Republican turnout may be disproportionately higher in a recall against a Democrat, the GOP is starting at a much lower floor than it was in 2003. Of course, there is a chance that some Democrats may vote for the recall for their own reasons; their vote is not necessarily pledged to Newsom, whose party label won’t actually appear on the ballot. Or Democrats may just disproportionately skip the vote, imperiling Newsom. In the UC Berkeley poll, Newsom does significantly better with the larger pool of registered voters compared to his smaller lead among likely voters, suggesting a Democratic enthusiasm problem that he needs to fix.
Unlike 2003, there is no major Democrat to vote for in the second question. While many Democrats are listed, none hold office, have held office, or are notable in any significant way otherwise. By comparison, Republicans have several more prominent choices. John Cox is a businessman who may have built up name recognition from his previous run against Newsom in 2018. Kevin Faulconer is the former mayor of San Diego, and may perform better in the southern part of the state. Caitlyn Jenner, the reality television star and former Olympic athlete, has also thrown her hat in the race. But for now, political commentator and libertarian talk-show host Larry Elder, who made it to the ballot after a legal dispute almost held him back, lead in the field, with 16% of voters planning to choose him for the second question, according to the Emerson poll (he also leads with 18% in the UC Berkeley poll). A full list of all candidates can be found here.
In summary, Newsom still has the advantage, though it may not be as open-and-shut as could be expected in such a Democratic state like California. While his approval rating and recall numbers could be better, it seems unfair to draw a direct line between Newsom and Gray Davis, as Davis was in a much worse position, and the GOP wasn’t as weak in California back then as it is now. That being said, Newsom must be vigilant, and his best bet is probably to appeal to Democrats through a partisan angle, casting the recall as a partisan effort by the Republicans to remove him. The Crystal Ball currently places the race at Likely Democratic.
This is truly amazing - very insightful!