Tomorrow, voters across Canada will go to the polls to elect all 338 members of their parliament, less than two years after the last election in October 2019. While Canadian elections are supposed to occur every four years, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau used his ability to call a snap election to move the date to September 20th, 2021. This briefing will offer context for this election, a primer on the parties contesting it, and what I posit the result will probably look like.
Context
While the US and Canada may share many similarities, their political systems most certainly don’t. Canada utilizes a parliamentary system, where multiple parties compete for seats in a legislature. The leader of the largest party in said legislature becomes Prime Minister, or PM for short, and serves as head of government. This allows him or her to set the policy agenda as leader of the largest party in the legislature and execute it as the head of government.
In 2015, Justin Trudeau was elected PM by Canadian voters, with his Liberal Party winning a majority of 184 seats in the 338 seats Canadian parliament. With this newfound power, Trudeau was able to steer Canada in a very different direction than his predecessor, Conservative Stephen Harper. In America, Trudeau is often known for his role in pushing for a progressive and multicultural Canada, at the same time when Donald Trump pushed for more conservative and assimilationist policies. While Justin Trudeau became a hero among the left in America, his popularity in Canada was more tenuous. Going into the 2019 election, he faced a moderate Conservative party that threatened to take votes from his right and a challenge from the left from Canadians who viewed him as too favorable to Trump and Canadian fossil-fuel energy interests. While Trudeau was able to win a plurality of seats in the 2019 election, his 157 seat-haul was 13 shy of a full majority.
In many parliamentary systems, such as the UK or India, a prospective PM can only form a government with the support of 50% of the parliament. This majority requirement necessitates coalition building; in 2017, the UK Conservatives were forced to form a coalition with a minor party to form a government. However, in Canada, there is no such requirement. Instead, the largest party can opt to form a “minority government” and skip the coalition-building step. Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party have been governing Canada since 2019 through a minority government and have filled cabinet seats with Liberal MPs using this modality.
The main downside of the minority government is that the PM cannot govern alone and must work with other parties with whom he will have political differences, to get his legislative agenda through. While his team of cabinet ministers are like-minded Liberal party members, Justin Trudeau has found getting his agenda through parliament challenging, given his party’s minority status. While the coronavirus inspired a temporary period of comity where parties put their policy differences aside, this period of goodwill was brief. Eventually, frustrated by several instances where specific policies failed to pass through parliament, Trudeau called a snap election in an attempt to consolidate a majority. For reference, PMs in parliamentary systems have the power to request an off-cycle election, dubbed a “snap election,” from the head of state; these requests are almost always granted. After several weeks of favorable polling during summer for the Liberals, PM Trudeau announced a snap election on August 15th, 2021, to be held 36 days later on September 20th.
The Parties
There are six parties contesting the current election that stand a realistic chance of winning seats in the legislature. A brief primer on them follows.
The Liberals
Leader: Justin Trudeau
Customary Color: Red
Current Seats: 155
Political Position: Center-Left
Groups that vote for this party: Upper-Middle-class educated Whites, Indian and East Asian immigrant communities (numbers primarily driven by Chinese and Korean immigrants), Native Canadians (group occasionally swings towards NDP)
The Liberals are considered the party of Canada’s center-left, and having governed Canada for the past six years, are considered the party of the status quo. They stand for socially progressive multiculturalism, environmentalism, and economically pragmatic policies. Conservative detractors will often claim that their social positions are too far-left for the average Canadian and that the Liberals, with their perceived antagonism to oil, support of certain welfare programs, and indifference to the national debt, aren’t really economically centrist. On the other hand, many on the Canadian political Left view them as sellouts to big corporations, perceive their progressivism as phony, and believe that the Liberal Party’s support of fossil fuel interests compromises their purported environmentalism. In a sign of American political interest in Canadian politics, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have endorsed Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party in this election cycle.
The Conservatives
Leader: Erin O’Toole
Customary Color: Blue
Current Seats: 119
Political Position: Center-Right
Groups that vote for this party: Blue-collar Middle-class Whites in Eastern Canada, “the 1%”, White Western Canadians
The Conservatives are considered the party of Canada’s center-right, though they have not always been that way. The modern Conservatives were formed via a merger in 2003 between the centrist Progressive Conservative (PC) Party and the right-wing populist Reform Party. As two separate parties, the historically dominant PCs saw their fortunes wiped out in the 1993 election and hobbled along until the aforementioned merger with the surging Reform Party, which had become the de facto Conservative option by that point. The last Conservative PM, Stephen Harper, came from the Reform wing, and the PC-faction of the Conservative party has typically been marginalized since their electoral disaster.
However, the current leader of the Conservatives, Erin O’Toole, has revitalized the PC wing, bringing moderation on many key issues back to the Conservative platform. The party is running on an economically centrist, environmental activist, and socially centrist policy. While rallying against “woke activists” who he believes seek to denigrate Canadian history and society, O’Toole has come out in support of abortion, same-sex marriage, and LGBTQ+ rights. Even as he derides the Liberals for ignoring Canada’s national debt, O’Toole believes a Conservative government must protect certain welfare programs and negotiate with Canada’s trade unions in good faith. This move to the center is controversial: some believe that it could bring new voters to the Conservative Party, while others think it could depress turnout among key Conservative voting blocs, who may be put off by this centrism. Many believe that party leadership will use this election to gauge whether the Conservatives should continue to moderate further.
The New Democratic Party (NDP)
Leader: Jagmeet Singh
Customary Color: Orange
Current Seats: 24
Political Position: Left-wing (Democratic Socialist)
Groups that vote for this party: Unionized working-class voters and college students
The New Democratic Party primarily serves as a voice for two blocs: trade unions and disaffected progressives like college students. A party crafted by the erstwhile authors of the Canadian healthcare system, the NDP today is more concerned about egalitarianism and ensuring greater equality of outcomes, than any specific fealty to overarching socialist goals. They are the party that is most critical of Canadaian behavior as a nation-state, often believing that the Canadian story of a progressive utopia is a myth predicated on the historical genocide and concurrent mistreatment of Canadian Natives, exploitation of workers and the working class, and ongoing dealings with several countries that violate human rights, such as China and Saudi Arabia.
In this election, they are taking credit for many of the Liberal Party’s coronavirus welfare programs, pointing out their support for increasing the Liberal Party’s meager original direct payments schemes to Canadians. On the other hand, they seek to point out the hypocrisy of the Liberal Party, contrasting their bold, progressive positions on several issues with their more circumspect execution of those ideals. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is also not shy about his identity as a child of Indian Sikh immigrants, emphasizing a push for a new type of leadership in the Canadian political system and a more diverse government in Ottawa. The NDP has been running a very social-media-savvy campaign targeted at young voters.
Bernie Sanders has officially endorsed the NDP this cycle. In addition, Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York 14th District) has done events with Jagmeet Singh.
The Bloc Québécois (the Bloc)
Leader: Yves-François Blanchet (YFB)
Customary Color: Light Blue
Current Seats: 32
Political Position: Quebec nationalist
Groups that vote for this party: Middle-class French-speaking residents of Quebec
The Bloc is a Quebec-nationalist party that pushes for greater autonomy for Quebec to eventually realize Quebec’s independence from Canada. For reference, Quebec is Canada’s second-largest province by population and has a French-dominated culture that is very distinct from the rest of Canada. This election cycle has caught them off guard as they attempt to deal with a provincial issue that complicates their campaign. Quebec nationalism has typically been a left-wing phenomenon: as such, the BQ has historically taken a leftist stance on most issues. However, a new and very popular government in Quebec was formed in 2018 by conservative Quebec nationalists, who sought to utilize Quebec’s support of secularism and assimilationism (Laïcité- lite?) to curb multiculturalism in the province. This awkward contrast puts the BQ in an uncomfortable situation, forcing them to defend many positions championed by the conservative Coalition for Quebec (CAQ in French).
Other Parties:
The Canadian Green Party holds two seats out in the progressive areas of greater Vancouver. While they primarily stand for environmentalism, they have been plagued (similar to the American Greens) by conspiracy theorists and massive infighting. Their leader, Annamie Paul, a black Jewish politician (a rarity in Canada), is currently running in (what is widely considered to be) a Safe-Liberal seat and is almost certain to lose.
The People’s Party of Canada (PPC) serves as an economically libertarian and socially conservative alternative to the Conservative Party. While many in the Canadian press follow it closely, as they believe it could serve as a vector of Trumpism into Canada, the party is relatively small and is mainly centered around its charismatic leader: Maxime Bernier. Formerly a Conservative MP, Bernier is trying to win back his old seat in Quebec. While he remains in striking distance of victory in that seat, the PPC will probably not win anywhere else.
The Campaign
When Trudeau called the election, the Liberals were comfortably ahead in all polls. In addition, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, having just won his party’s leadership election, wasn’t as well known. The snap-election call caught most parties by surprise, leaving them little time to articulate a straightforward narrative. The most potent message the Conservatives and the NDP could muster up initially was that “Trudeau is calling this election because the Liberals want to consolidate a majority and ‘grab’ more power.” While possibly true, most political pundits dismissed this attack, believing that this would not create any voter attrition for the Liberals.
Except, it did. According to polling, the Liberals plummeted in the first two weeks of the race, with the Conservatives surging and the NDP also gaining ground. These polls also showed that most Canadians disapproved of the snap election, believing it to be unnecessary and untimely. As a result, leading up to the debates, many models, including my own, started predicting the possibility of a Conservative minority government, putting an end to six years of Liberal governance.
However, after the debates, polls began creeping back towards the Liberals. An impressive performance in the French and English-language debates by Trudeau and O’Toole’s lackluster presence has turned this into a close horse race.
The three issues that have dominated the campaign are COVID-19, Energy, and Foreign Affairs, with the latter two intertwined in some aspects. On the COVID front, the Conservatives want to phase out some of the emergency spending undertaken by the Liberals and remove many of the restrictions relating to masking and social distancing. On the other hand, the NDP wants to keep the Liberal Party’s plans but increase spending, even making some of it permanent.
On energy and the environment, both the Conservatives and NDP claim the Liberals are not taking the threat of climate change seriously enough. The current Liberal position is to apply a carbon tax across the board to all Canadians to discourage fossil-fuel usage. In addition, the Liberal strategy about American-bound oil pipelines is to evaluate each pipeline on a case-by-case basis, balancing the environmentalist desires of the party with maintaining a good relationship with the United States. However, the Conservatives want to target the users of fossil fuels through an emissions fee instead of the current carbon tax. The burden of this new system would mostly be felt by the working-class at the gas pump, paying a significant portion of their income for this increase, and the richest, who consume the largest absolute amount of fossil fuels. While this may appeal to traditionally Liberal voters, this position is quite alienating to many Conservatives, who will probably be negatively affected by this switch; it’s unclear, electorally, how the Conservatives stand to gain from this position. However, the Conservatives are sticking with their almost-unconditional support of oil pipelines to the US. Meanwhile, the NDP wants to combat fossil fuels by dramatically raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest Canadians, a large proportion of whom happen to be fossil fuel executives. They also seek an immediate halt to all pipeline construction until they can be built in an “environmentally sustainable” way.
In terms of foreign policy and immigration, the Liberals are currently maintaining their traditional approach of pro-US pacifism. They seek to work within the American geopolitical framework to advance liberal causes around the world. However, the Liberals have been hesitant to be as aggressive on China as the US has; Canada has a large Chinese diaspora that typically votes Liberal and would prefer not to see their country and ancestral homeland at odds. The Conservatives, however, want to further align with the US; they believe that China is the most significant foreign threat that Canada currently faces. Finally, the NDP believes that Canada should remain neutral, disassociating itself completely from both China and authoritarian US allies like Saudi Arabia. They also seek to dial down the amount of military and intelligence cooperation Canada currently has with the US.
While many initially feared that 36 days was not enough for a full-fledged campaign to have taken place, it is fair to say that it had been an incredibly rambunctious few weeks in the world of Canadian politics.
My prognosis
The most likely result is that Trudeau wins… and he loses. By that, I mean that Trudeau will probably remain as PM but won’t get the majority he was looking for, which is a disappointing result for the Liberals.
For reference, while the race may be neck-and-neck, it so happens that a completely even environment in the popular vote provides a 20-40 seat advantage to the Liberals in terms of parliamentary seats, given how the constituencies (or ridings, as they are called in Canada) are drawn.
On the other hand, most people are expecting low turnout, which historically benefits the Conservatives. While the Conservatives seem to be headed towards remaining as the main opposition party, it remains within the realm of possibility for the Conservatives to squeak past the Liberals and become the largest party. It will only probably take a 1-2% shift from polling estimates for that to happen. In addition, there have been some reports of discussions between the Conservatives and NDP to potentially form a coalition to oust Trudeau. Jagmeet Singh, NDP leader, has been noticeably silent about the Conservatives, preferring to concentrate his attacks on the Liberals and Trudeau. While all of this is possible, it remains a lower-probability outcome than a Trudeau and Liberal Party win.
In conclusion, it seems that, just like California last week, that millions of dollars will be spent to conduct an election whose outcome will not deviate in a significant way from the previous one. The Liberals look likely to form a minority government and be the largest party in Canada’s 44th parliament.
Thorough and well-researched, as usual. This is very similar to Singapore's decision to call an early election this year, despite COVID protocols. As you predict for Canada, in Singapore too the ruling party won, but their lead got cut down substantially, and the opposition made huge gains, despite not having had much time at all to campaign or plan, and despite no political rallies being permitted. I'm wondering if Canada has mail-in votes, and how this could swing the outcome.