California Gubernatorial Recall Briefing
Governor Gavin Newsom looks set to survive the recall effort
Tomorrow, voters in the world’s 5th largest economy will head to the polls to determine whether they want to recall or retain their current Governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom. The graphic above shows my prediction of what the result could be on Question 1 of the recall.
Back in late July, I had written an article for Sabato’s Crystal Ball to serve as a background guide for the recall; you can find that article below.
In this article, I will, therefore, focus on updating some of the points I raised in the background guide, and cover how things have changed since late July and early August.
The bottom line is that, compared to a month ago, Newsom’s odds of keeping his job have increased substantially. Poll numbers have swung towards him, and I would put the odds now of Newsom staying in the governor’s mansion at around 90%. While there are many causes being suggested for this shift in polling, I believe the two main reasons are a broader nationalization of the race and the coalescing of the alternative around Larry Elder.
1) The “Nationalization” of the Race
A recall election is, on paper, a non-partisan process. It is not supposed to be a two-way race with parties competing for a seat. It, rather, is simply a referendum on the competence of an elected official.
In July and early August, few Democratic officeholders had spoken publically about the upcoming recall. Many Democratic voters, therefore, may have indicated their support for the recall due to their personal dislike of Governor Newsom and his many perceived missteps and failures. By mid-August, however, Newsom and his aides realized that this recall may not be as open-and-shut as they previously thought, and decided on an interesting strategy. Instead of the recall being viewed as a non-partisan process, they rebranded the effort as a Republican campaign with a simple message to California’s voters: “vote NO on the Republican recall.”
This did three things. First, it tied the recall effort to the Republican Party, by terming the September 14 election as a Republican effort to oust a Democratic governor. Second, the inclusion of figures such as Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris made it clear that the national Democratic party believed that California would be better with Newsom retained. Finally, it brought in a lot of out-of-state donations, allowing for Newsom to expand the scope of his campaign.
Simultaneously and mirroring this, the recall caught the attention of several national conservative media outlets, as well as Republicans outside of California. This heightened awareness and coverage reinforced the Democratic efforts to turn the recall election into a politically partisan process.
Because of these two things, the “No on recall” camp is now firmly associated with liberals and the Democratic Party, and the “Yes on recall” side with conservatives and the Republican Party. This may be bad news for the “Yes on recall” side, as this changed the referendum from a non-partisan process to a party-line phenomenon. As a reminder, Republicans only make up one-third of the electorate of California.
Effectively, this is the “nationalization” of a statewide race. We have, in recent history, an interesting example in last year’s South Carolina senate race. The unpopular Republican incumbent, Lindsay Graham, started slipping in the polls leading up to election day. The national Democratic party, sensing a major opportunity, funneled millions to their candidate, now-current DNC chair Jamie Harrison. This was a significant strategic mistake, as it rallied conservative voters who originally distrusted Lindsay Graham to turn out in his favor and deliver Harrison a painful loss.
Nationalization, ironically, will typically favor the party that is stronger at the statewide level. In California, the nationalization of the recall election appears to be helping Newsom, as previously hesitant Democrats rally around their candidate to spite the Republican Party.
2) The Emergence of Elder
As I mentioned in my background guide, the recall ballot posits two questions. The first one asks if the Governor should be recalled via a simple Yes/No. The second one asks, in the event he is removed, who should replace him. Polling has clearly indicated that the candidate who will top the list comfortably is Republican Larry Elder.
An African-American libertarian-conservative pro-Trump radio host from Los Angeles, his dominance in the polling has essentially turned the recall election into a head-to-head contest between Gavin Newsom and him. While Elder has strong brand recognition due to his radio show, this same radio show is proving to be a liability for him now, as it has fed into the narrative that has transformed the recall from a non-partisan process into a party-line election.
At the end of the day, California is a liberal state, currently dominated by the Democratic Party. The Democrats have veto-proof majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and the state voted 65%-35% for Joe Biden last November. Voters, now looking at this contest through a partisan lens, may not take to Elder’s remarks and opinions very well. Just this weekend, a clip of him opposing the Civil Rights Act of 1964 re-emerged. The fact that a conservative Republican like Elder is the de facto alternative in what is a two-man race may be a large reason why Newsom is gaining ground in the final days of the campaign.
Because of these two elements, the race has swung towards Gavin Newsom in the last couple of weeks. I would put this referendum as Likely Retain. This rating is corroborated by Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
A final word of caution
California is a challenging state to draw strong conclusions from polling results, thanks to its diverse population and lopsided Democratic majority. The latter has led to polling companies not investing as much effort in California as in more evenly balanced states, and the former creates challenges in creating accurate samples and aggregating across crosstabs. In 2008, most polling companies predicted that Proposition 8, a ballot proposition that sought to ban gay marriage in California, would fail by 3-5%. It ended up passing by 2.5%, outside the margin of error of most polls. Even during this recall season, many data analysts have noted that many polling crosstabs do not appear to add up or make logical sense. Having said that, polling models can only go so far; the fact that this race is now nationalized with a conservative Republican now branded as the alternative leads me to believe that Newsom stands a strong chance of retaining the Governor’s mansion, albeit with a bruised ego.
Good piece, thanks
Informative article, and you've brought out the wider political perspective of nation and parties very effectively. Am sure mail-in votes will count for a lot too!