Dear Reader,
I recently started #weeklystateprofile on Twitter (please follow me at @ParakramKarnik), where I take a quick dive into the political climate of each state in the country. The first state I profiled was Alabama; the thread is linked here. It was very well-received on the site, and many people had great and informative reccomendations. Therefore, I have created this sub-newsletter as a place where I can publish these threads and incorporate some of that feedback.
In addition, I would like to thank all of you for not only reading my work, but also giving me feedback and avenues to expand. Specifically, on Thursday, Kelly Evans linked one of my recent articles in her newsletter that accompanies her afternoon show on CNBC, The Exchange. That edition can be found here, the article she referred to can be found here, and I would strongly recommend that all my readers subscribe to her newsletter and watch her show on CNBC if they are interested in the financial markets.
Thank you Ms. Evans for referencing my work, and thank you to all of my subscribers for the time you take out of your schedule to read my newsletter, provide feedback, and spread the word about it.
Best,
Parakram Karnik
Alabama, the Yellowhammer State, is a stronghold for the Republican Party. The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) measures how much a state votes to the right or left of the national average; Alabama’s Cook PVI is Republican +15. Republicans hold all statewide positions, and the average statewide result is below.
History
Founded in 1819, Alabama almost immediately became an enthusiastic supporter of Andrew Jackson’s Democrats due to their opposition to tariffs. When the GOP first came along, Alabama went even further to the Democrats, as implicit support for slavery was added to the Democratic platform. After the Civil War, Alabama Democrats combined populist economic policy with racist and extremely conservative social policy. The Democratic Party was so popular that, between 1840 and 1964, Alabama was essentially a one-party state with the exception of Reconstruction. Thus, the Democratic Party dominated the state's politics in a monopolistic fashion for over 100 years.
But as the Democrats started to become the party of social progressivism after the 1960s, Alabama slowly decided to shift towards the more conservative Republicans. An aggressive state GOP soon was able to flip Alabama’s Senate seats and governor’s mansion in the 90s. In 2011, the GOP finally flipped the state legislature, bringing an end to almost 150 years of Democratic governance. Since then, Alabama has never looked back and has become one of the most Republican states in the country. Except for Doug Jones, a Democrat who won a special election in 2017 under unique circumstances, the once-dominant Democratic Party has been shut out of all statewide positions since 2011 and will be shut out for the foreseeable future.
Voting Groups
The state currently has four main voting camps: Suburbanites, Unionists, Southerners, and African Americans.
Suburbanites
Suburbanites in Alabama reside around the cities in the state. Their strongholds are the counties of Shelby, Madison, Mobile, and Baldwin. They are conservative, not very populist, and were the first to bolt from the Democratic Party in the 70s. While most approve of Trump, his brand of populist conservatism isn’t the most appealing to them. Suburban areas, while still voting Republican, swung heavily towards Biden in 2020. The city of Huntsville actually voted Democrat for the first time in a while; the aforementioned swing is the prime cause of that. They also care about public officials' morality: the Suburbanites were the ones who put Doug Jones over the edge in 2017. They are heavily represented in Alabama’s 1st, 5th, and 6th districts.
Unionists
Unionists hail from the northern part of the state, anchored around the Tennessee River. They were always distrustful of elites; their fears over “slave power” (a conspiracy in the 1850s that rich and degenerate slave owners secretly controlled all parts of the US government) led many of them to support the Union in the Civil War. The Tennessee Valley Authority and the New Deal programs in the 30s cemented their populist streak.
The Unionists are probably the most socially conservative of all the four groups, but their economic populism kept them with the Democrats until the mid-2000s, when they finally switched. Now thanks to Trump’s populism, they are the most Republican demographic in the nation, not just Alabama.
They are heavily represented in Alabama’s 4th, 5th, and 6th. The 4th district is almost exclusively unionist and has become, thanks to Trump, the most Republican district in the country.
Southerners
Southerners hail from the rural southern farms of the south of the state. They are the white residents of the Wiregrass region and the Black Belt of Alabama. These areas used to provide the most wealth for the state, as they were the center of the plantation economy. This also allowed for Southerners to dominate the old Alabama Democratic Party. However, the area was ravaged by the Civil War and the Boll Weevil and never fully recovered.
Its transition from Democratic to Republican was long and not exactly linear. For statewide elections, it became GOP in the early 2000s. However, it was also the last group to elect a White (albeit very conservative) Democrat to the House: Bobby Bright in 2008. This group is heavily centered in Alabama’s 1st, 2nd, and 3rd districts.
African Americans
That leaves one more group: African Americans. In contrast to the other very Republican groups, African Americans are very Democratic. Thus is the racially polarized climate of the south; African Americans make up the core of modern-day Democratic Parties across the South. In Alabama, they are centered in urban areas and the Black Belt. That doesn’t mean they are culturally liberal, but they are more socially liberal than many of their white counterparts. For example, this famous referendum below to permit interracial marriage in 2000 performed very well among African Americans.
It should be noted that African Americans used to vote Republican before 1930 (look at the black belt below), but Roosevelt and the New Deal flipped them. This is a nationwide trend, but African Americans in the North did flip faster than down-south.
African Americans dominate the 7th district, thanks to the Voting Rights Act. The district is the only one that elects a Democrat to Congress, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
The Deeper Cut
These four groups help explain Alabama politics at a macro level pretty well. For someone who wishes to go a bit deeper, there are some local areas that have their own unique quirks.
The city of Mobile has a huge arts scene and has become far more diverse recently, in large part due to a recent “white flight” to neighboring Baldwin County. However, the culture of both of these counties match more of the Florida panhandle. In fact, many residents of Mobile and Baldwin counties actually are unhappy with the idea of being associated with the rest of Alabama. In order to understand the politics of these two counties, it may be more useful to track trends in North Florida cities, such as Panama City, Tallahassee, and Pensacola, rather than other parts of Alabama.
There are also many counties that seem conservative at face-value, but do have liberal pockets in them. Two of the most notable are Tuscaloosa and Auburn; the liberal urban college-town areas are outweighed by the more rural parts of those counties
In addition, Huntsville is currently seeing a sizable influx of northerners. While these people are not liberals per se, they are turning Madison County (where Huntsville is located) more blue.
The Future
Alabama will probably stay as-is for the time being. Democrats have hit the floor of their performance, and any suburbanite switching over to the Democrats will be offset by Unionists and Southerners going to the Republicans. However, the changing coalitions in Alabama politics could present open lanes at the local level to Democrats. Specifically, second-level (population-wise) Alabaman cities, like Huntsville and Mobile, may soon have Democratic mayors again.
Nice analysis as always Parakram. The analysis is great and there are many things that I didn't know about the deep south and Alabama. There are many areas that are considered purple in the country, Alabama is definitely not one of them. Alabama has been red for a long time and getting deeper red. I doubt if they always vote along policy lines and mostly along just the social hot button issues since their standing in terms of their financial well-being has not improved over a long time. So obviously they are not voting with their heads and wallets, but their hearts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_income